Bank of Canada Intere t Rate Deci ion 2026: Current Rate, Foreca t & Next Date
If you’ve been watching your mortgage renewal date creep closer while the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate parked at 2.25%, you’re not alone. The central bank has held steady since October 2025, and its April 2026 decision reaffirmed that pause — leaving borrowers and buyers guessing when the next move will come.
Current Bank of Canada policy rate: 2.25% ·
Rate unchanged since: October 2025 ·
Latest decision (April 2026): Hold at 2.25% ·
Next scheduled announcement: June 10, 2026 ·
Inflation target: 2%
Quick snapshot
- Policy rate held at 2.25% on April 29, 2026 (Bank of Canada (official rate-setting body))
- Next announcement scheduled for June 10, 2026 (Bank of Canada)
- Bank Rate set at 2.5%, deposit rate at 2.20% (Bank of Canada)
- Exact timing of future rate cuts — depends on inflation path (Bank of Canada (data-dependent stance))
- Whether mortgage rates will fall back to 3% in this cycle (WOWA (mortgage analytics platform))
- Last rate change: October 2025 (cut to 2.25%) (Bank of Canada)
- April 29, 2026: held at 2.25% (Bank of Canada)
- Next: June 10, 2026 (Bank of Canada (monetary policy schedule))
- Market-implied probability of hold at June meeting: 97% (WOWA (mortgage analytics platform))
- Potential rate cuts later in 2026 if inflation moderates (Bank of Canada)
The key data points from the Bank of Canada’s April decision are summarized below.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Current Overnight Rate | 2.25% | Bank of Canada |
| Date of Last Change | October 2025 | Bank of Canada |
| Date of Latest Decision | April 29, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| Decision | Hold | Bank of Canada |
| Bank Rate | 2.5% | Bank of Canada |
| Deposit Rate | 2.20% | Bank of Canada |
| Next Monetary Policy Report | July 15, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| Inflation projection (target) | 2% by early 2027 | Bank of Canada |
When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?
- The Bank of Canada holds eight fixed-rate decision dates each year (Bank of Canada (monetary policy schedule)).
- The next scheduled overnight-rate announcement is June 10, 2026 (Bank of Canada).
- Decisions are published at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) (Bank of Canada).
What time is the Bank of Canada interest rate decision?
All rate announcements are released at 13:45 UTC (9:45 AM Eastern Time) on the scheduled date. The official statement and accompanying data follow minutes later on the Bank of Canada’s website.
Bank of Canada announcement dates 2026
- January 28 (with Monetary Policy Report)
- March 18
- April 29 (with MPR)
- June 10
- July 15 (with MPR)
- September 2
- October 28
- December 9
The pattern: Three of the 2026 dates — January, April, and July — include a full Monetary Policy Report with updated forecasts. The June 10 meeting will not have an MPR, meaning the Governing Council’s statement will be the primary signal for market watchers.
What is the new interest rate for the Bank of Canada?
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.25%
At its April 29, 2026 decision, the Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%. The Bank Rate was set at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20% (Bank of Canada (official press release)).
Why did the BoC hold rates steady?
The Bank cited inflation that was running above the 2% target — CPI inflation was projected to rise to about 3% in April 2026 — and a need to see clearer signs that price pressures were easing. The Governing Council noted that future changes “could be small” if the economic projections hold (Bank of Canada).
The Bank expects inflation to return to the 2% target only in early 2027. Until then, the hold buys time — but keeps mortgage rates elevated for longer.
The implication: patience is the only strategy until inflation convincingly eases.
Is interest rate expected to go down in Canada?
Will mortgage rates ever drop to 3% again?
- TD Economics forecasts the overnight rate at 2.25% for the remainder of 2026 (TD Economics (Canadian forecast tables)).
- Trading Economics projects the policy rate around 2.00% by 2027 (Trading Economics (financial data provider)).
- RBC Economics meanwhile expects the overnight rate to rise to 3.25% by end of 2027 (WOWA (reporting RBC Economics outlook)).
The wide range of forecasts illustrates the uncertainty. Much depends on whether inflation continues to ease and how the US-Canada trade landscape evolves. For mortgage rates to fall back near 3%, the policy rate would need to drop significantly — not just hold.
What is the Bank of Canada interest rate forecast for 2026?
Implied forward rates from CORRA contracts — a market-based measure — suggest a 97% probability that the Bank holds at 2.25% at the June 10 meeting (WOWA (CORRA forward analysis)). Beyond June, the consensus among economists surveyed by major banks is that the first cut could come in the second half of 2026, provided inflation data cooperates.
Why this matters: For variable-rate mortgage holders, a prolonged hold means payments stay at current levels. Only a cut would bring relief — and the market isn’t pricing one before late 2026 at the earliest.
What is the current 5-year mortgage rate in Canada?
How much is a mortgage on a $500,000 house in Canada?
As of mid-2026, the average 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is approximately 5.5% (Trading Economics (mortgage rate data)). On a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization, the monthly payment works out to roughly $2,800. Actual rates vary by lender, credit score, and down payment size — but the ballpark is a useful benchmark for budgeting.
Current 5-year fixed mortgage rate trends
- Rates have been edging down from the 2024 peak above 6%, but remain well above the pandemic-era low of ~1.5%.
- Lenders are pricing in the uncertainty of the BoC’s next move; many offer pre‑approval holds for 60‑120 days.
- Rate differentials between fixed and variable have narrowed, making the choice less straightforward.
The trade-off: Locking in a 5-year fixed at 5.5% shields you from a potential rise in rates, but if cuts materialize in 2027 you’ll be stuck above market. A variable rate could save money if the BoC starts cutting, but it carries risk if the hold extends longer than expected.
What is the Bank of Canada interest rate forecast?
Bank of Canada interest rate history last 10 years
The overnight rate has swung dramatically. In 2016 it sat at 0.50%, rose to 1.75% by 2018, was slashed to 0.25% during the pandemic, then climbed to a peak of 5.00% in mid-2023 before being cut to 2.25% by October 2025. The current hold is the longest pause since the tightening cycle began.
Rate trends and future projections
- Market consensus from TD Economics expects 2.25% to hold through 2026.
- Trading Economics models a gradual decline to 2.00% by 2027.
- Some analysts (via WOWA) flag the possibility of an uptick if inflation proves sticky.
The Bank’s own projections, published in the April MPR, show inflation returning to 2% only in early 2027. That timeline suggests rate cuts, if they come, will be gradual — measured in quarters, not months.
For Canadian mortgage holders, the window to lock in a fixed rate at current levels may close once the BoC signals a pivot. Waiting for a 3% mortgage rate again is a high-risk bet — it would require the policy rate to fall to roughly 1%, which none of the major forecasts project before 2028.
The pattern: the BoC’s cautious language and inflation projections all point to a slow, data-dependent path forward.
Timeline of recent Bank of Canada rate decisions
- October 2025 — BoC sets policy rate at 2.25% (last change, a cut from 2.50%) (Bank of Canada).
- April 29, 2026 — BoC holds rate at 2.25%; Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20% (Bank of Canada).
- June 10, 2026 — Next scheduled announcement (Bank of Canada (schedule)).
- July 15, 2026 — Next Monetary Policy Report released, including updated quarterly forecasts (Bank of Canada).
- September 2, 2026 — Subsequent rate decision date (Bank of Canada (schedule)).
Taken together, these dates show the BoC’s deliberate pace — no rush to cut until inflation is clearly tamed.
What’s confirmed and what’s still unclear
Confirmed facts
- Current overnight rate target is 2.25% (Bank of Canada).
- Rate unchanged since October 2025 (Bank of Canada).
- Next announcement: June 10, 2026 (Bank of Canada).
- BoC meets 8 times per year on fixed dates (Bank of Canada).
- Inflation projected at about 3% in April 2026, returning to 2% target early 2027 (Bank of Canada).
What’s unclear
- Exact timing of future rate cuts — dependent on inflation trajectory (Bank of Canada).
- Whether mortgage rates will ever drop to 3% again — would require a policy rate near 1% (WOWA).
- How trade policy between Canada and the US will affect the BoC’s decision path (Bank of Canada).
The implication: homeowners must weigh rock-solid current data against an uncertain future.
Expert perspectives on the rate hold
“The Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25% and will continue to assess whether further changes are needed. Future decisions will be data-dependent, and any changes could be small.”
— Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, April 29, 2026 statement (Bank of Canada)
“The Bank of Canada is keeping its key lending rate at 2.25%, saying future changes could be small if its economic projections hold true.”
— CBC News, reporting on the April 2026 decision (CBC News (Canadian public broadcaster))
Both perspectives reinforce the same message: the Bank is comfortable holding, but not complacent. The “small changes” language is a hint that when the pivot comes, it will be gradual — not a sharp reversal.
Summary: What the rate hold means for you
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold at 2.25% through spring 2026 buys time for inflation to cool, but it also locks in higher borrowing costs for anyone renewing a mortgage or buying a home. For Canadian mortgage holders, the choice is clear: act now to lock in a 5-year fixed near 5.5%, or take a variable-rate gamble that the BoC starts cutting before the end of 2026 — with the risk that a prolonged hold stretches payments even further.
For the latest details on the current rate and forecast, see the Bank of Canada interest rate today page.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between the BoC policy rate and mortgage rates?
How does the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision affect my mortgage?
What is the overnight rate?
When will the next rate change happen?
How often does the Bank of Canada meet?
What is the inflation target?
For more context, read 10 CAD to USD: Current Exchange Rate and Key Factors — the loonie’s value is closely tied to BoC rate differentials with the US. Also see Canadian Home Buyers in US Down: Snowbirds Sell & Drop Out for how the interest rate environment is reshaping cross-border real estate decisions.
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